July and August forecast released: warmer-than-average summer expected for Croatia

Croatia is likely to experience a warmer-than-average rest of the summer, according to the latest seasonal forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The forecast, based on an ensemble of 51 simulations, indicates temperatures will stay above the long-term average through much of summer and into autumn 2026.

Meteorologist Bojan Lipovšćak notes that seasonal forecasts do not predict day-to-day weather but estimate the probability of temperatures and rainfall being above or below climate averages. The model suggests July will be around 0.5°C to 1°C warmer than average, with stable high-pressure conditions that raise the likelihood of tropical nights (above 20°C) and very hot days (above 30°C). July rainfall is expected to be near or slightly below average, often concentrated in short, heavy thunderstorms.

August is also forecast to be warmer than average, with the possibility of more intense heatwaves when warm air moves north from North Africa. September could extend the summer, especially along the Adriatic coast where sea temperatures may stay well above average, though it could also bring the season's first significant storms.

Above-average temperatures are expected to continue into October and November. Meteorologists say the pattern of intense downpours following prolonged dry spells has become increasingly characteristic of the Mediterranean, the Croatian Adriatic and the Balkans.